The Next 100 Years

The Next 100 Years – George Friedman

What will the world look like by the end of the twenty-first century? George Friedman, founder of the geopolitical intelligence firm Stratfor, believes that the broad shape of the future can be forecast by studying geography, demographics, economics and the enduring interests of nations. In The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century, he makes a series of bold predictions decade by decade.

Friedman argues that the United States, because of its geography, naval power and economic strength, will remain the dominant global power throughout the century, and that the twenty-first century will be the American age. He predicts that the conflict with radical Islamist movements will fade, that Russia will make a renewed bid for regional power before declining, and that China, despite its rapid growth, will face serious internal strains.

He then forecasts the rise of new powers, including Turkey, Poland and Japan, and envisions major conflicts in the middle of the century, involving new technologies, including space-based weapons. Later in the century, he suggests, demographic changes, including falling birth rates and labor shortages in developed countries, will transform societies, and Mexico may emerge as a significant challenger to the United States.

Friedman acknowledges that specific details will inevitably be wrong, but argues that thinking about the forces shaping the future helps us understand the present.

Provocative and wide-ranging, The Next 100 Years is a stimulating read for those interested in geopolitics, history and international relations. Readers should note that it was written in 2009, and some of its forecasts have already been overtaken by events.